Weekly Japanese Industry and Policy News (Apr. 21-Apr. 27, 2023)

The EU-Japan Centre is pleased to start a new weekly service by publishing brief summary of the latest information from the Japanese governmental organizations & private companies/organizations. A couple of minutes reading to be informed about what is happening in Japan's policy, economy, EU-Japan relations, and innovation.

*Information is deemed correct at the time of release. 

“Possibility of melting of the East Antarctic ice sheet due to global warming'' AIST warns against the risk of rising sea levels
On April 19, the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) announced it analyzed seafloor sediment cores off the coast of East Antarctica and found that during the past warm period 130,000 to 115,000 years ago, the East Antarctic ice sheet shrank significantly and the sea level rose at that time. It had made a significant contribution to the study reconstructed the changes in the East Antarctic ice sheet during the past warm period (the last interglacial) and examined whether future warming could shrink the East Antarctic ice sheet.

They found that there were two significant shrinkages of the East Antarctic ice sheet between 130,000 and 115,000 years ago. The contraction of these ice sheets would have been large enough to raise sea level by about 0.8m. While recent warming has accelerated the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was previously thought to be stable against global warming. However, in recent years, melting of parts of the East Antarctic ice sheet has begun to be observed, and attention is focused on whether future warming will cause significant melting of the East Antarctic ice sheet.

Once sea level rise is triggered, it will take hundreds of years or more to return to normal, so it will continue to affect society over the long term, and there are concerns about its impact. The results of this research are expected to contribute to improving the accuracy of future predictions of the Antarctic ice sheet and sea level changes, which have been considered to be highly uncertain.

National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) website (in Japanese):
https://www.aist.go.jp/aist_j/press_release/pr2023/pr20230419/pr20230419.html

Fiscal 2021 greenhouse gas emissions increase for the first time in four years　
On April 21, the Ministry of the Environment and the National Institute for Environmental Studies announced Japan's greenhouse gas emissions and removals for fiscal 2021 (confirmed figures). Against the backdrop of an increase in energy consumption due to economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, total emissions increased by 2% (21.5 million tons) from the previous fiscal year to 1.122 billion tons (CO2 equivalent), the first time in four years. increased.
On the other hand, compared to FY2013, the base year, it decreased by 20.3% (285.3 million tons), and decreased by 3.4% from FY2019, before the spread of the COVID-19 infection. In addition, this time, for the first time in Japan, 2,300 tons of absorption by mangroves, one of the blue carbon ecosystems, was recorded. In addition to mangrove forests, the Ministry of the Environment is proceeding with studies aimed at calculating and recording emissions and absorption amounts of blue carbon ecosystems for wetlands, tidal flats, seagrass meadows, and seaweed beds.

Looking at the emissions “before electricity and heat allocation,” which is the amount of energy-derived CO2 emissions associated with power generation and heat generation recorded in the sector on the producer side, emissions from the energy conversion sector such as power plants account for the largest share at 40.4%, followed by the industrial sector at 25.3% and the transportation sector at 16.7%. When energy-derived CO2 emissions are allocated to each sector on the consumer side according to the amount of electricity and heat consumed, the industrial sector has the largest emissions at 35.1%, followed by the commercial and other sectors. 17.9% in the sector, followed by 17.4% in the transportation sector.

The share of renewable energy (including hydropower) in the power supply mix in FY2021 will be 20.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year. Nuclear power was 6.9%, an increase of 3.0 points from the previous year. Thermal power (excluding biomass) was 72.9%, down 3.4 points from the previous year, but it must be said that this level is still high.

Ministry of Environment website:
https://www.env.go.jp/en/press/press_01366.html

First private moon landing failure
The lunar lander of the Japanese space company ispace tried to land on the moon in the early morning of April 26, but communication was lost almost immediately after landing. The company later announced that it had determined that it would not be possible to land on the moon. The company says that it was able to acquire valuable data and will make use of the experience for the next lunar lander launch plan scheduled for fiscal 2024.

According to the company, the lander, which was orbiting about 100 kilometers above the moon, gradually lowered its altitude at around 0:40 am on April 26 and aimed to land. However, at around 1:40 a.m., the scheduled landing time, communication with the ground control room in Tokyo was lost. Analysis so far has revealed that the lander was vertical to the lunar surface and prepared for final landing, but it ran out of fuel to slow down and rapidly accelerated its descent before losing communication. It is possible that the spacecraft was severely damaged when it hit the moon.

The lander is 2.6 meters wide, 2.3 meters high and weighs 340 kilograms. It was launched by a U.S. rocket in December last year, and has continued to fly smoothly, including entering lunar orbit in March this year. It carried seven cargoes, including an exploration robot developed by a Japanese company and others and a rover of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) space agency.

Regarding the lunar landing, several US companies are planning to launch landers this year, and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is also planning to launch the probe "SLIM Slim" aiming for a lunar landing after this summer. 

ispace website:
https://ispace-inc.com/news-en/?p=4655

Start of heatstroke warning alert operation, when heat index is 33 or higher
On April 26, the Ministry of the Environment and the Japan Meteorological Agency began operating a "heatstroke alert" that urges people to take preventive actions when a hot environment with an extremely high risk of heatstroke is predicted. "Heat Stroke Warning Alert" is a unit of 58 prefectural forecast areas (Hokkaido, Kagoshima, and Okinawa prefectures are divided into 58 nationwide), and the daily maximum heat index of 33 is calculated at any of the WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) calculation points within the target area. It will be announced when it is predicted that the above will occur. The timing is 5 PM the day before and 5 AM of the day.

Alert announcement information and WBGT for each prediction point will be provided on the Ministry of the Environment heat stroke prevention website. It will also be distributed on the same site's "Heat Stroke Warning Alert Mail Delivery Service" and the Ministry of the Environment LINE official account. About 40,000 to 50,000 people are required to be transported by ambulance each year due to heatstroke, and the number of deaths exceeded 1,000 for three consecutive years from 2018 to 2020. In fiscal 2022, 85 days of the 183-day target period were announced in 46 of the 58 regions. The total number of presentations is 889.

The Heat Index (WBGT) is an index proposed in the United States in 1954 for the purpose of preventing heatstroke. The units are in degrees Celsius (°C), the same as temperature, but the values are different. An index that focuses on the exchange of heat between the human body and the outside air (heat balance), and incorporates three factors that have a large impact on the heat balance of the human body: humidity, the surrounding thermal environment such as solar radiation, and temperature.

Ministry of the Environment website:
https://www.wbgt.env.go.jp/en/

Japan's population will fall below 100 million in 2056, and will decrease by 30% to 87 million in 2070
On April 26, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research released its "Future Population Projection," which predicts Japan's long-term population. If the number of children born per woman stays the same as it is now, the population will fall below 100 million by 2056, and the number of Japanese births will fall below 500,000 by 2059. If Japan cannot maintain the scale of our population, our national strength may shrink. The time has come to rush measures aimed at maintaining economic growth even in a society with a declining population.

Future population projections are revised once every five years based on the national census. In response to the COVID-19 disaster, this time it was revised for the first time in six years. Compared to the previous estimate in 2017, the timing for the population to fall below 100 million was delayed by three years. This is because the number of foreigners entering the country was estimated to increase to 160,000 from 70,000 in the previous census, taking the average from 2016 to 2019. However, looking at the Japanese population alone, the time when the population will fall below 100 million will be 2048, one year earlier.

The outlook for the fertility rate has been revised downward from 1.44 in the previous estimate to 1.36 under the medium-range scenario, reflecting the declining birthrate. Based on that, the number of Japanese births in 2059 will be 496,000. In 2016, the number of people dropped below 1 million, and in 2022, it fell below 800,000. In 2050, the proportion of the population under the age of 14 will fall below 10%. In terms of the number of people, it will decrease from 15 million in 2020 to about 10.4 million.

On the other hand, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will rise from 28.6% in 2020 to 38.7% in 2070. The number of elderly people will also reach 33.67 million in 2070. Although there will be a decrease of more than 2 million people compared to 2020, the population of the working generation is declining faster, and the proportion of elderly people in society as a whole will increase. The working-age population aged 15-64 is estimated to be 45.35 million in 2070. This is a 40% decrease from the 2020 result of 75.09 million. Over the next 50 years, 30 million workers will be lost, and Japan will face unprecedented challenges not only in terms of labor productivity and economic growth, but also in welfare measures.

IPSS(National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) website (in Japanese):
https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2023/pp_zenkoku2023.asp

Toyota's global sales in FY 2022 reach record high of 9.6 million units
Toyota announced on April 27 that its global sales volume in FY 2022 was a record high of 9.6 million units, up 1% from the previous fiscal year. Demand was driven by Asian regions such as Indonesia due to the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Global production also increased by 7% to 9.13 million units, a record high, surpassing FY 2016 (9.07 million units).

Global sales surpassed the previous fiscal year for the second consecutive year, according to the announced sales, production and export results. By region, sales were strong in Indonesia (up 8%), Thailand (up 10%), and the Philippines (up 36%). In Southeast Asia, economic activity has been stagnant due to the COVID-19 in FY 2021, and economic stimulus measures and postponed demand in each country have pushed up sales in FY 2022. Domestic sales also increased by 1% to 1.4 million units, surpassing the previous fiscal year for the first time in three years. On the other hand, sales in North America and China, which have large markets, decreased from the previous year.

Global production also increased by 7% to a record high of 9.13 million units. It is the second year in a row that it surpassed the previous year. Strengthening production capacity in North America and Asia contributed. Domestic production increased by 1% to 2.78 million units, surpassing the previous year's level for the first time in three years. However, it fell short of the 3 million unit line set by Toyota as a guideline for maintaining employment and technical capabilities for the third consecutive year.

TOYOTA website:
https://global.toyota/en/company/profile/production-sales-figures/202303.html

International standard for drone traffic management system issued
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced on April 27 that the international standard for the drone operation management system proposed by Japan was issued on April 26. In order to use drones safely, securely, and efficiently, it is necessary to manage flight plan information (when and what route to fly) and dynamic information (where it is currently flying). What has just been published is a standard for the structure of that function and definitions of terms. As a result, it will be possible to internationally standardize the role that the system should play, necessary information, and related terminology.
This standard is the result of the "Energy-saving society realization project where robots and drones play an active role" promoted by the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), a national research and development agency, since 2017, and has been internationally standardized by Japan which led the study at the Organization (ISO).

"ISO 23629-5 UAS traffic management (UTM)—Part 5:UTM Functional Structure" issued shares information of all drones flying within a certain airspace and prevents collision accidents. It is an international standard related to UTM that has a role to support. However, the role that UTM should play, necessary information, and related terminology have not been internationally unified, which has been an issue in promoting smooth discussions.

In the future, by referring to this standard, stakeholders around the world will be able to use the same words with the same meaning, so it is expected that stagnation of discussions due to misunderstandings will be minimized. In addition, it is expected to accelerate the development of technology related to UTM itself and drones, as well as the development of related industries.

ISO website:
https://www.iso.org/standard/78961.html

PwC Japan survey shows decline in number of patent applications for renewable energy in Japan
On April 24, PwC Japan Group announced the results of a survey of technology development trends in Japan and around the world related to green transformation (GX) based on investment information and the number of patent applications.

According to the report, in terms of the number of global patent applications in the GX field, Japan has the largest percentages for "solar power generation," "fuel cells," "energy saving in buildings," "electric mobility," and "rechargeable batteries."  All of the major fields require a certain amount of investment, but among them, the investment growth rate of "hydrogen technology" and "electric mobility" is extremely high at almost 50% annually, and further growth is expected in the future.

In addition, Japan maintains a certain level of technological prowess in all technological elements. It is said that it has a strong presence in the "manufacturing process" driven by hydrogen production, chemical, steel and energy plant manufacturers.

In general, Japan is ahead in the field of mobility, and it can be seen that technological development is focused on the supply and use of hydrogen. On the other hand, the same survey analyzes that in Europe, technology development is progressing mainly in storage and transportation, which are necessary for full-scale social implementation.

In light of this situation, the Japanese government and Japanese companies are urged to build an ecosystem in which companies in the supply chain of the hydrogen industry cooperate, collaborate and coexist across national borders and industries, and develop storage, The report points out that there is a strong need to strengthen technical capabilities in transportation as well.

PwC website (in Japanese):
https://www.pwc.com/jp/ja/knowledge/thoughtleadership/green-transformation.html